ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEW
Global
After all the hype around the 3 November US election, interest in US politics has died away surprisingly quickly as it became apparent that Joe Biden will most likely be inaugurated on 20 January 2021.
This change in news focus was perhaps not all that surprising as more relevant matters, such as a second Covid 19 wave in the northern hemisphere and accompanying lockdowns, are threatening to derail the global economic recovery Various vaccines seem to be in the final stage of approval, but distribution of these and the willingness of communities to be vaccinated also play a role in creating the conditions for a sustained return to previous levels of economic activity.
This is clear from a recent report published by TS Lombard, an independent economic and investment strategy research house They concluded that the world economy will benefit from an effective vaccine (or vaccines) but that it also faces two major downside developments the second wave of infections which is more virulent than previously expected (especially in Europe), and delays in the implementation of a second fiscal stimulus package in the United States which was originally scheduled for the end of the third quarter this year They believe that the vaccine upside and these short term downsides should combine to sustain stock markets at their current very high ratings the downsides and resulting disappointing Q 4 and Q 1 growth will keep central bank policies ultra easy, while the prospective consumption benefits from the vaccine will sustain investor confidence.
